Pls come to my party

Sorry for ghosting. Im back now, Blogalishous. 

Setup: 

1. Im turning 30

2. Im stressing

3. Im doing a party

4. My birthday is on the 23rd of dez

5. People dont like bang bang double booked  bdays, especially if second bang is jesus’ bday

6. My venue captures around 70 throughout the whole night 

7. Id be sad if less then 40 come 

Solution=Mafs 

5 Simple steps:

1. Write down who you want to invite 

After adjustment I have a 113 people I would like to invite

2. Make some assumptions

   1. Probability of turning up 

Chat GPT tells me between 60-80% depending on how popular I am. I am hella popular so 80%. Now that’s if my birthday isnt on the 23 of dec. So my best guess is 50% of those will attend. Now some I know 100% that they will attend (mom and dad,I love you). Some I would like to see but haven't had contact since years. So lets split them up in 3 Pokemon related groups: 

1. The legendary Trainers: The main Squad 50% attendance (I say there are 10% more likely on average to turn up) 

2. The Gym Leaders: The Fwiends  40% attendance (average likelihood) 

3. The Wild Pokemon: The high grass finds (I say they are 10% less likely on average to turn up) 

   
   
   
   

   

   
   

b. estimated +1s

I think estimated +1, given they are coming, are actually 0.2. This might be a bit high but I am also including people I forgot to invite in this metric. 

3. Calculate estimated attendance

   1. Multiply expected attendance:  1.2*probability. 

   2. Calculate Variance and standard deviation

4. Results: 

   1. Expected attendees is 54

   2. 5% chance that there is more than 64 coming

   3. 5%chance that there is less than 44 coming

5. Write a blog about it. 

Idea comes from the great Hanna Fry <3, in her book “The Mathematics of Love”

Excel Template is from the great blog at https://blog.rileystrong.com/

Happy Birthday to me and see you soon Bloglishous